Validating vulnerability: ground-truthing projections from genomic offsets

How can we predict which species will adapt to climate change?

Across the globe, threatened species are already becoming impacted by the effects of climate change. While we understand many of the characteristics that make a species particularly vulnerable to climate change – those with small ranges, fragmented populations, or long lifespans, for example – predicting the capacity of a given species to respond remains a challenge. Developing analytical approaches and science-based frameworks to predict adaptive capacity in all species is a critical step forward for conservation management.

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Piñataversity – a biodiversity assessment of Viva Piñata

Revisiting Piñata Island

Every now and then, my gaming habits tend to take a bit of a wander down memory lane. Of late, that means cracking out one of my classic faves – the life simulation and “collectathon” Viva Piñata by Rare. Originally released in 2006, with successor (expanded version, essentially) Viva Piñata: Trouble in Paradise released in 2008, the game essentially involves creating a lavish garden to attract wild piñata-like animals. Although a little light on plot, the main goal is to entice these wild creatures (Wilds) to stay in your garden (becoming Residents), to later be sent off to parties across the globe. Trouble in Paradise boasts a roster of 88 different species of Piñatas to collect, as well as a variety of fruiting trees, plants, and flowers to grow.

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Changing the (water)course of history

The structure of a river system

For anyone who has had to study geography at some point in their education, you’d likely be familiar with the idea of river courses drawn on a map. They’re so important, in fact, that they are often the delimiting factor in the edges of countries, states or other political units. Water is a fundamental requirement of all forms of life and the riverways that scatter the globe underpin the maintenance, structure and accumulation of a large swathe of biodiversity.

So, what is a river?

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Pressing Ctrl-Z on Life with De-extinction

Note: For some clear, interesting presentations on the topic of de-extinction, and where some of the information for this post comes from, check out this list of TED talks.

The current conservation crisis

The stark reality of conservation in the modern era epitomises the crisis discipline that so often is used to describe it: species are disappearing at an unprecedented rate, and despite our best efforts it appears that they will continue to do so. The magnitude and complexity of our impacts on the environment effectively decimates entire ecosystems (and indeed, the entire biosphere). It is thus our responsibility as ‘custodians of the planet’ (although if I had a choice, I would have sacked us as CEOs of this whole business) to attempt to prevent further extinction of our planet’s biodiversity.

Human CEO example
“….shit.”

If you’re even remotely familiar with this blog, then you would have been exposed to a number of different techniques, practices and outcomes of conservation research and its disparate sub-disciplines (e.g. population genetics, community ecology, etc.). Given the limited resources available to conserve an overwhelming number of endangered species, we attempt to prioritise our efforts towards those most in need, although there is a strong taxonomic bias underpinning them.

At least from a genetic perspective, this sometimes involves trying to understand the nature and potential of adaptation from genetic variation (as a predictor of future adaptability). Or using genetic information to inform captive breeding programs, to allow us to boost population numbers with minimal risk of inbreeding depression. Or perhaps allowing us to describe new, unidentified species which require their own set of targeted management recommendations and political legislation.

Genetic rescue

Yet another example of the use of genetics in conservation management, and one that we have previously discussed on The G-CAT, is the concept of ‘genetic rescue’. This involves actively adding new genetic material from other populations into our captive breeding programs to supplement the amount of genetic variation available for future (or even current) adaptation. While there traditionally has been some debate about the risk of outbreeding depression, genetic rescue has been shown to be an effective method for prolonging the survival of at-risk populations.

super-gene-genetic-rescue-e1549973268851.jpg
How my overactive imagination pictures ‘genetic rescue’.

There’s one catch (well, a few really) with genetic rescue: namely, that one must have other populations to ‘outbreed’ with in order add genetic variation to the captive population. But what happens if we’re too late? What if there are no other populations to supplement with, or those other populations are also too genetically depauperate to use for genetic rescue?

Believe it or not, sometimes it’s not too late to save species, even after they have gone extinct. Which brings us from this (lengthy) introduction to this week’s topic: de-extinction. Yes, we’re literally (okay, maybe not) going to raise the dead.

Necroconservaticon
Your textbook guide to de-extinction. Now banned in 47 countries.

Backbreeding: resurrection by hybridisation

You might wonder how (or even if!) this is possible. And to be frank, it’s extraordinarily difficult. However, it has to a degree been done before, in very specific circumstances. One scenario is based on breeding out a species back into existence: sometimes we refer to this as ‘backbreeding’.

This practice really only applies in a few select scenarios. One requirement for backbreeding to be possible is that hybridisation across species has to have occurred in the past, and generally to a substantial scale. This is important as it allows the genetic variation which defines one of those species to live on within the genome of its sister species even when the original ‘host’ species goes extinct. That might make absolutely zero sense as it stands, so let’s dive into this with a case study.

I’m sure you’ll recognise (at the very least, in name) these handsome fellows below: the Galápagos tortoise. They were a pinnacle in Charles Darwin’s research into the process of evolution by natural selection, and can live for so long that until recently there had been living individuals which would have been able to remember him (assuming, you know, memory loss is not a thing in tortoises. I can’t even remember what I had for dinner two days ago, to be fair). As remarkable as they are, Galápagos tortoises actually comprise 15 different species, which can be primarily determined by the shape of their shells and the islands they inhabit.

Galapagos island and tortoises
A map of the Galápagos archipelago and tortoise species, with extinct species indicated by symbology. Lonesome George was the last known living member of the Pinta Island tortoise, C. abingdonii for reference. Source: Wikipedia.

One of these species, Chelonoidis elephantopus, also known as the Floreana tortoise after their home island, went extinct over 150 years ago, likely due to hunting and tradeHowever, before they all died, some individuals were transported to another island (ironically, likely by mariners) and did the dirty with another species of tortoise: C. becki. Because of this, some of the genetic material of the extinct Floreana tortoise introgressed into the genome of the still-living C. becki. In an effort to restore an iconic species, scientists from a number of institutions attempted to do what sounds like science-fiction: breed the extinct tortoise back to life.

By carefully managing and selectively breeding captive individuals , progressive future generations of the captive population can gradually include more and more of the original extinct C. elephantopus genetic sequence within their genomes. While a 100% resurrection might not be fully possible, by the end of the process individuals with progressively higher proportion of the original Floreana tortoise genome will be born. Although maybe not a perfect replica, this ‘revived’ species is much more likely to serve a similar ecological role to the now-extinct species, and thus contribute to ecosystem stability. To this day, this is one of the closest attempts at reviving a long-dead species.

Is full de-extinction possible?

When you saw the title for this post, you were probably expecting some Jurassic Park level ‘dinosaurs walking on Earth again’ information. I know I did when I first heard the term de-extinction. Unfortunately, contemporary de-extinction practices are not that far advanced just yet, although there have been some solid attempts. Experiments conducted using the genomic DNA from the nucleus of a dead animal, and cloning it within the egg of another living member of that species has effectively cloned an animal back from the dead. This method, however, is currently limited to animals that have died recently, as the DNA degrades beyond use over time.

The same methods have been attempted for some extinct animals, which went extinct relatively recently. Experiments involving the Pyrenean ibex (bucardo) were successful in generating an embryo, but not sustaining a living organism. The bucardo died 10 minutes after birth due to a critical lung condition, as an example.

The challenges and ethics of de-extinction

One might expect that as genomic technologies improve, particularly methods facilitated by the genome-editing allowed from CRISPR/Cas-9 development, that we might one day be able to truly resurrect an extinct species. But this leads to very strongly debated topics of ethics and morality of de-extinction. If we can bring a species back from the dead, should we? What are the unexpected impacts of its revival? How will we prevent history from repeating itself, and the species simply going back extinct? In a rapidly changing world, how can we account for the differences in environment between when the species was alive and now?

Deextinction via necromancy figure
The Chaotic Neutral (?) approach to de-extinction.

There is no clear, simple answer to many of these questions. We are only scratching the surface of the possibility of de-extinction, and I expect that this debate will only accelerate with the research. One thing remains eternally true, though: it is still the distinct responsibility of humanity to prevent more extinctions in the future. Handling the growing climate change problem and the collapse of ecosystems remains a top priority for conservation science, and without a solution there will be no stable planet on which to de-extinct species.

de-extinction meme
You bet we’re gonna make a meme months after it’s gone out of popularity.

Short essay: Real life or (‘just’) fantasy?

The fantastical

Like many people, from a young age I was obsessed and interested in works of fantasy and science fiction. To feel transported to magical worlds of various imaginative creatures and diverse places. The luxury of being able to separate from the mundanity of reality is one many children (or nostalgic adults) will be able to relate to upon reflection. Worlds that appear far more creative and engaging than our own are intrinsically enticing to the human psyche and the escapism it allows is no doubt an integral part of growing up for many people (especially those who have also dealt or avoided dealing with mental health issues).

The biological

The intricate connection to the (super)natural world drove me to fall in love with the natural world. Although there might seem to be an intrinsic contrast between the two – the absence or presence of reality – the truth is that the world is a wondrous place if you observe it through an appropriate lens. Dragons are real, forms of life are astronomically varied and imaginative, and there we are surrounded by the unknown and potentially mythical. To see the awe and mystification on a child’s face when they see a strange or unique animal for the very first time bears remarkable parallels to the expression when we stare into the fantasy of Avatar or The Lord of the Rings.

Combined dragon images
Two (very different) types of real life dragons. On the left, a terrifying dragon fish brought up from the abyssal depths by the CSIRO RV Investigator expedition. On the right, the minuscule but beautiful blue dragon (Glaucus atlanticus), which is actually a slug.

It might seem common for ‘nerds’ (at least under the traditional definition of being obsessed with particular aspects of pop culture) to later become scientists of some form or another. And I think this is a true reflection: particularly, I think the innate personality traits that cause one to look at the world of fantasy with wonder and amazement also commonly elicits a similar response in terms of the natural world. It is hard to see an example where the CGI’d majesty of contemporary fantasy and sci-fi could outcompete the intrigue generated by real, wondrous plants and animals.

Seeing the divine in the mundane

Although we often require a more tangible, objective justification for research, the connection of people to the diversity of life (whether said diversity is fictitious or not) should be a significant driving factor in the perceived importance of conservation management. However, we are often degraded to somewhat trivial discussions: why should we care about (x) species? What do they do for us? Why are they important?

Combined baobab images
Sometimes the ‘mundane’ (real) can inspire the ‘fantasy’… On the left, a real baobab tree (genus Adansonia: this one is Adansonia grandidieri) from Madagascar. On the right, the destructive baobab trees threaten to tear apart the prince’s planet in ‘The Little Prince’ by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry.

If we approach the real world and the organisms that inhabit it with truly the same wonder as we approach the fantastical, would we be more successful in preserving biodiversity? Could we reverse our horrific trend of letting species go extinct? Every species on Earth represents something unique: a new perspective, an evolutionary innovation, a lens through which to see the world and its history. Even the most ‘mundane’ of species represent something critical to functionality of ecosystems, and their lack of emphasis undermines their importance.

Dementor wasp.png
…and sometimes, the fantasy inspires the reality. This is the dementor wasp (Ampulex dementor), named after the frightening creatures from the ‘Harry Potter‘ series. The name was chosen by the public based on the behaviour of the wasp to inject a toxin into its cockroach prey, which effectively turns them into mindless zombies and makes them unable to resist being pulled helplessly into the wasp’s nest. Absolutely terrifying.

The biota of Earth are no different to the magical fabled beasts of science fiction and fantasy, and we’re watching it all burn away right in front of our eyes.